The latest Econ Tracker update also provides the new forecast for the 2024/25 season.
“Looking ahead to next season, we see a marginal tightening of dairy farmer’s financial position, with less revenue forecast. We are not expecting feed and fertiliser costs to drop much further than they have already done and while debt servicing may ease, it will likely remain at very high levels,” explains Mark.
The breakeven milk price for the 2024/25 season is forecast to sit at around $7.76 kg/MS, while the forecast payout received is $7.79 kg/MS.
“We are encouraging farmers to continue managing their budgets and costs, as they will likely experience limited operating profits, and many will likely still find it tight across many parts of the country,” says Mark.
“However, we know that dairy operates in a fluctuating economic environment, and therefore, the farm revenue and costs captured in the 2024/25 season forecast are subject to considerable uncertainty and can change quickly.
“Farmers will be working closely with their banks, advisors, and rural professionals, including the DairyNZ team, as they plan for the next season.”
The new forecasts are published on the DairyNZ Econ Tracker and expressed as a national average, which does not necessarily reflect individual farm situations. A quarterly update, focused on the new season forecasting, is also available online.
Farmers and rural professionals can use this tool to support informed decision-making when it comes to financial planning, forecasting, and budgeting.
Farmers can contact their DairyNZ regional team, call 0800 4 DairyNZ, or go online to dairynz.co.nz/business/budgeting for more tools, information, and advice.
Note for the editor:
The breakeven milk price is the milk sale price per kilogram of milksolids to cover a farm’s costs in a season, excluding capital expenditure and principal repaid on loans.
The forecast average payout is based on the estimated milk receipts for the specified season, along with dairy company dividends.
Media contact
Celine Walters-Gray
Media specialist
p: 027 247 9876
e: celine.walters@dairynz.co.nz