New Zealand farmers are facing an increasingly unpredictable global environment, but economist Shamubeel Eaqub delivered a clear message at Waikato’s 2025 People Expo, hosted on Wednesday by DairyNZ and the Dairy Women's Network: focus on what you can control.
“The world is changing rapidly, and nothing can be taken for granted,” said Eaqub, who delivered a thought-provoking keynote on the economic and political shifts shaping the future of dairy farming. “We’re moving into a new state of the world, one that is less predictable, more volatile, and fraught with challenges like rising protectionism, economic slowdowns, and geopolitical tensions. But history shows us that this isn’t unusual, it’s just different from what we’ve experienced over the last two decades.”
Despite global uncertainty, Eaqub pointed to positive signs in New Zealand’s economic landscape. Interest rates are stabilising, and the current high milk payout is providing a cushion against challenges like drought. However, he urged farmers to be prepared for cost shocks and to strengthen their financial resilience by focusing on productivity in new ways.
“Productivity is not about how much milk we produce, it’s about how much money we make and what we can pay our people,” Eaqub explained. “Farmers are businesspeople first. Profitability and wages are the true measures of success.”
A shifting global landscape
Eaqub highlighted the rise of protectionism, drawing comparisons to the 1930s, when tariffs disrupted global trade. He noted that future government policies, both in New Zealand and internationally, are likely to be erratic, with political cycles becoming shorter and more polarised. “We’ll see more one-term governments undoing each other’s work, making long-term planning harder for businesses,” he warned.
Climate policy shifts, trade disruptions, and evolving social expectations also pose challenges for the dairy sector. “We used to take things like open trade and economic growth for granted. That’s no longer the case,” Eaqub said. “Our supply chains will become less reliable, and we’ll need to work harder to maintain our social licence.”
Strengthening dairy’s future
While dairy remains a pillar of the New Zealand economy, consumer habits are shifting. In 2007, 90% of households bought milk weekly, today, that number has dropped to 50%. Additionally, 40% of New Zealanders – due to affordability concerns – are not buying fresh food weekly, and a quarter of the population sometimes skips meals due to cost.
“If we want to keep our social licence, we need to stay connected to consumers,” Eaqub cautioned. “Dairy still has a strong public perception, around 65% of Kiwis hold a positive view, but that could change if we don’t engage with the reality of rising food insecurity.”
On the farm, retention of skilled workers is becoming increasingly critical. With New Zealand’s core working-age population shrinking and net migration slowing, Eaqub stressed the importance of investing in people. “Retention is where you get the biggest gains. The more people you can keep, the stronger your business will be,” he said.
He encouraged farmers to focus on leadership and workplace culture, as well as ongoing training. “Technical skills are important, but future success will depend on communication, teamwork, problem-solving, and critical thinking. If we know these skills will be vital in ten years, why not prioritise them now?”
Reasons for optimism
Despite the challenges ahead, Eaqub remains hopeful about New Zealand’s agricultural future. “We are more diversified than ever before. We have land, water, and a climate well-suited to farming. We remain a successful farming nation, and we will for a long time to come.”
Encouragingly, signs of economic recovery are emerging. Business investment is starting to pick up, lending conditions are improving, and consumer confidence is slowly returning. “Hope is coming back,” Eaqub said. “We’re going to have a good couple of years.”
However, he urged farmers to take a proactive approach: “Prepare for volatility, focus on your business fundamentals, invest in your people, and adapt to the changing world. The more resilient and forward-thinking we are, the better positioned we’ll be for the future.”
Have a look at DairyNZ’s tools to support your farm and your people.
Media contact
Jacob Quinn
Principal Corporate Communications Advisor
p 027 716 4197
e jacob.quinn@dairynz.co.nz