Adapting to a changing climate
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5 min read
Farmers are already experiencing the impact of climate change firsthand. Building resilience into your farm system will be key to coping with changing weather patterns, increased temperatures, and adverse events.
Farmers are used to dealing with the weather. However, extreme events like floods and drought are becoming more common. They regularly disrupt farming communities and affect farmers' livelihoods and daily farm management. The severity, scale, and frequency of these weather events will only increase over time. Alongside this, average temperatures will continue to rise, impacting pasture production and animal health, among other things.
Understanding how your farm might be affected by climate change and having an adverse event checklist or plan will help strengthen your farm system's resilience. In addition, this information can help you respond to requests from banks and insurance companies that are starting to examine how climate change risk and resilience could affect farm businesses.
On-farm adaptation
When considering farm system changes or significant investments such as infrastructure, it is crucial to take a long-term perspective and consider adapting to a changing climate. The following questions might help:
Pasture health and productivity
- How will changes in rainfall timing impact my pastures/crops?
- Can I still manage my water supply to meet pasture needs?
- Are there any new or existing plant diseases that could affect pasture/crops?
- Can I supply additional irrigation in a significantly reduced rainfall scenario?
- Do I have the optimal variety of pasture/crops, considering their tolerance limits?
- What pests should I be looking out for?
- What does an increase in saltwater concentration affect my pasture/crop?
- What other grass species, crops, or trees could work on my farm?
Stock health
- Is there a risk of heat stress for my animals (consider factors like water access, walking distance, shelter and water supply)?
- Are there areas that could be developed to provide shade and shelter for stock and/or windbreaks?
- Are there vulnerable areas where extreme events, like floods, could impact my stock?
- What areas on my property are prone to waterlogging?
- What are the indicators of drought on my property, and what is my response plan?
Property Infrastructure
- Which property infrastructure could be damaged by storm events, flooding, or sea level rise? (e.g. fences, races, buildings, irrigation units)
- Are there any viable options to enhance the resilience of the property to extreme events?
- Is any infrastructure requiring moving to avoid flood or sea level rise?
- Where are my property's 'safe' areas for critical infrastructure?
Water Management
- How can I achieve improved water efficiency in:
- Infrastructure – improve the efficiency of irrigation (e.g. lower application intensity, or a travelling drip to reduce wind inefficacy).
- Crops – what effect will crop management practices have on water stress?
- Soil – how can I increase the amount of water in my soil to add resilience.
- Can I access additional water through existing methods or shared consents with neighbours in my catchment?
- Are there any water storage options available?
- How can I manage the deficit between my farm's water availability and water demand?
- Will a rise in sea level or increased freshwater extraction affect the salt content of my water supply?
- Assess the effectiveness of my drainage network. What actions can be taken to manage intense rainfall events?
- Are there any flood-prone areas where a waterway could change course?
What is DairyNZ doing?
DairyNZ is actively advocating for farmers as the Government develops and implements adaptation policies to address New Zealand’s response to climate change.
We also have a range of research projects underway looking at different aspects of adaptation, including:
- World-leading animal genetic gain, incorporating resilience traits into Breeding Worth.
- Developing data-driven tools to better understand and manage heat stress in dairy cows.
- The Adapted Systems project in the Improved Forage Gains program seeks to enhance dairy farming resilience to climate variability and extreme weather. It develops tailored solutions with farmers, emphasising pasture species, mixtures, and management practices that improve feed resilience.
- Driving regional adaptation.
What is predicted to change?
New Zealand has already experienced around 1.1°C warming since the start of the 20th century. By 2040, there will likely be more extended dry spells, longer summers, shorter winters, and an ongoing increase in storms, wind and rainfall across large parts of the country.
The information below shows NIWA projections for temperature and sea level rise out to 2040.
NIWA temperature and sea level rise predictions to 2040
Zone 1: Upper North Island
Warmer, drier, more hot days (over 25°C), low river flows reached earlier.
Rainfall little change - seasonal reduction in winter and spring, small increase in summer.
Fewer frosts.
Small decrease in extreme wind, ex-tropical cyclone intensity increases.
Sea level rise 0.36-0.71m (2090).
Zone 2: Western Lower North Island
Warmer, drier, more hot days (over 25°C), low river flows reached earlier.
Rainfall little changed - seasonal reduction in winter and spring, small increase in summer.
Fewer frosts.
Up to 10% increase in extreme wind, ex-tropical cyclone intensity increases.
Sea level rise 0.36-0.71m (2090).
Zone 3: Eastern Lower North Island
Warmer, very dry conditions increase, more hot days (over 25°C), very dry conditions increase except for high altitude Tararua Ranges.
Rainfall little changed - seasonal reduction in winter and spring, small increase in summer.
Fewer frosts.
Extreme wind speed increases up to 10%, intensity of ex-tropical cyclones increases.
Sea level rise 0.36-0.71m (2090).
Zone 4: Northern South Island
Warmer, -5 to +5 variance in number of dry days, increase in hot days (over 25°C).
Rainfall very wet days increase by 10% in Marlborough Sounds region. No change elsewhere.
Fewer frosts, decreased snow, snowline lifts from 1550m to 1550-1750m.
Extreme wind speeds increase up to 10%, intensity of ex-tropical cyclones increases.
Sea level rise 0.36-0.71m (2090).
Zone 5: Eastern South Island
Warmer, increase in hot days (over 25°C), fewer dry days/year on Canterbury Plains, more dry days in inland areas. Low river flow threshold reached earlier in the year.
Rainfall little change - small increases autumn-winter, small decreases in winter for Canterbury. -5% to +5% change in extreme precipitation. Largest decrease across Eastern Otago.
Fewer frosts, decreased snow. Snowline lifts from 1550m to 1550-1750m.
Extreme wind speeds increase up to 10%, intensity of ex-tropical cyclones increases.
Sea level rise 0.36-0.71m (2090).
Zone 6: Western and Southern South Island
Warmer, more hot days (over 25°C) - more in Central Otago, fewer in Fjordland, fewer dry days/year on central West Coast, +5 dry days/year for Kahurangi National Park and Southland.
Small increase in annual rainfall. Larger increase in winter. -5% to +5% change in extreme precipitation. Low river flow threshold reached earlier.
Fewer frosts, decreased snow. Snowline lifts from 1550m to 1700m-2000m.
Extreme wind speeds increase up to 10%, intensity of ex-tropical cyclones increases.
Sea level rise 0.36-0.71m (2090).
We also partner with other research organisations on this work and others, for example the Deep South National Science Challenge:
- Dairy farming with floods, droughts and a changing climate
- Matamata-Piako Climate Resilience and Adaptations
- Summer growth rates and annual yields of perennial ryegrass in the Upper North Island expected to decline as a result of climate change
- Understanding dairy farmers' perceptions of climate change and adaptation decisions in the lower South Island of New Zealand
- Dairy farming exposure and impacts from coastal flooding and sea level rise
